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SHAWN HACK
PULSE
Real-time signals from the Singularity
22 metrics
|
6 categories
AI Progress
Model capability and cost frontiers
Token Cost (Frontier)
Cost per million tokens for the cheapest frontier-class model
$0.075/M
99.9% drop since 2020
API pricing
2026-02-01
Token Cost (Frontier): History
2024-07
0.15
2025-01
0.1
2025-06
0.075
2026-02
0.075
Context Window Frontier
Maximum input size a single model can process at once
2M tokens
500x in 2 years
Google, Anthropic
2026-02-01
Context Window Frontier: History
2023-11
200,000
2024-02
1,000,000
2025-03
1,000,000
2025-12
2,000,000
Humanity's Last Exam
Expert-level exam designed to be the last test AI cannot pass
52.1%
GPT-5.4 (with tools)
Scale AI, OpenAI
2026-03-05
Humanity's Last Exam: History
2025-11
25.2
2026-01
37.52
2026-02
44.7
2026-03
52.1
METR Time Horizon
Longest human-calibrated task duration at which AI agents succeed 50% of the time
14.5h
Doubling every ~3 months
METR
2026-02-05
METR Time Horizon: History
2025-04
2
2025-08
3.6
2025-11
5.3
2026-02
14.5
Arena Elo Frontier
Highest Elo rating from blind human preference voting
1520
Gemini 3.1 Pro
LMArena
2026-02-19
Arena Elo Frontier: History
2026-02-17
1,493
2025-11-18
1,501
2026-02-05
1,504
2026-02-19
1,520
SWE-bench Frontier
Best score on real-world GitHub issue resolution by AI
80.9%
Claude Opus 4.5
SWE-bench Verified
2025-11-24
SWE-bench Frontier: History
2026-02-05
80
2026-02-19
80.6
2026-02-05
80.8
2025-11-24
80.9
Hardware
Compute substrate scaling
Chip Transistor Count
Transistors on the most advanced shipping processor
336B
NVIDIA Rubin R100
NVIDIA
2026-01-01
Chip Transistor Count: History
2020-01
54.2
2022-01
114
2024-01
208
2026-01
336
Training Compute Frontier
Peak compute used to train a single frontier model
2e26 FLOP
2025 frontier
Epoch AI
2025-01-01
Training Compute Frontier: History
2022-01-01
24.699
2023-01-01
25.301
2024-01-01
25.699
2025-01-01
26.301
GPU TFLOPS Frontier
Peak FP16 performance of the latest data center GPU
3,375 TFLOPS
B300
NVIDIA
2025-01-01
GPU TFLOPS Frontier: History
2020-01-01
312
2022-01-01
990
2024-01-01
2,250
2025-01-01
3,375
Robotics
Physical AI deployment
Autonomous Miles Driven
Cumulative miles driven by fully autonomous vehicles
200M+
Waymo 450K rides/week
Waymo
2026-02-01
Autonomous Miles Driven: History
2023-01
40
2024-01
65
2025-01
100
2026-02
200
Humanoid Robots Deployed
Humanoid robots operating in real-world environments
~20,000
Unitree 10-20K target, Figure 12K capacity
Omdia, industry reports
2026-03-23
Humanoid Robots Deployed: History
2024-01
1,500
2025-06
5,000
2025-12
10,000
2026-03
20,000
Cost per Humanoid
Estimated manufacturing cost per humanoid robot unit
~$40K
Unitree G1 at $13.5K
Industry estimates
2026-02-01
Cost per Humanoid: History
2024-01
150,000
2025-01
80,000
2025-12
50,000
2026-02
40,000
Industrial Robots Deployed
Total operational industrial robots worldwide
5.2M
2025 global fleet
IFR
2025-01-01
Industrial Robots Deployed: History
2019-01-01
2.72
2021-01-01
3.48
2023-01-01
4.28
2025-01-01
5.2
Macro Trends
Global-scale indicators
Kardashev Rating
Civilization's energy use on a logarithmic scale where 1.0 = all of Earth's energy
0.729
Type I = 1.0
Sagan interpolation
2026-01-01
Kardashev Rating: History
1975-01
0.67
2000-01
0.72
2025-01
0.728
2026-01
0.729
Global AI Investment
Total annual investment in AI companies and infrastructure
$300B
~3x year-over-year
Stanford AI Index, Crunchbase
2026-01-01
Global AI Investment: History
2022-01
52
2023-01
67
2024-01
110
2025-01
300
Global AI Spending
Total worldwide spending on AI including infrastructure, software, and services
$2.5T
Infrastructure = $1.37T
Gartner
2026-01-15
Global AI Spending: History
2023-01
180
2024-01
450
2025-01
1,200
2026-01
2,520
Renewable Energy %
Share of global electricity generation from renewable sources
35%
Surpassing coal in 2025
IEA
2026-01-01
Renewable Energy %: History
2020-01
27
2022-01
29
2024-01
32
2025-01
35
Longevity
Lifespan extension progress
Longevity Clinical Trials
Active clinical trials targeting aging and age-related disease
~350
Active aging/longevity trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
2026-02-01
Longevity Clinical Trials: History
2020-01
130
2022-01
200
2024-01
280
2025-12
350
Epigenetic Clock Accuracy
Mean error in predicting biological age from DNA methylation
±1.5 yrs
Biological age measurement
Horvath Lab
2025-06-01
Epigenetic Clock Accuracy: History
2018-01
2.7
2019-01
2.5
2022-01
2
2025-01
1.5
Gene Therapies Approved
FDA-approved gene and cell therapy treatments
46
FDA-approved
FDA, BioInformant
2026-02-01
Gene Therapies Approved: History
2023-01
22
2024-01
28
2025-06
34
2026-02
46
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Neural interface milestones
Implanted BCI Patients
People with surgically implanted brain-computer interfaces
~30
Neuralink 21, Synchron 10
Company announcements
2026-02-01
Implanted BCI Patients: History
2024-01
8
2025-06
12
2025-12
15
2026-02
30
BCI Electrode Count
Recording channels on the leading implanted neural interface
1,024
Neuralink N1
Neuralink
2026-02-01
BCI Electrode Count: History
2012-01
96
2019-01
256
2023-01
1,024
2025-01
1,024