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SHAWN HACK
PULSE
Real-time signals from the Singularity
20 metrics
|
6 categories
AI Progress
Model capability and cost frontiers
Token Cost (Frontier)
Cost per million tokens for the cheapest frontier-class model
$0.075/M
99.9% drop since 2020
API pricing
2026-02-01
Token Cost (Frontier) — History
2024-07
0.15
2025-01
0.1
2025-06
0.075
2026-02
0.075
Context Window Frontier
Maximum input size a single model can process at once
2M tokens
500x in 2 years
Google, Anthropic
2025-12-01
Context Window Frontier — History
2023-11
200,000
2024-02
1,000,000
2025-03
1,000,000
2025-12
2,000,000
Humanity's Last Exam
Expert-level exam designed to be the last test AI cannot pass
37.5%
Gemini 3 Pro
Scale AI
2026-01-27
Humanity's Last Exam — History
2025-04
20.32
2025-08
25.32
2025-11
25.2
2026-01
37.52
Autonomous Miles Driven
Cumulative miles driven by fully autonomous vehicles
100M+
Waymo, Cruise, others
Industry reports
2025-12-01
Autonomous Miles Driven — History
2022-01
25
2023-01
40
2024-01
65
2025-01
100
Arena Elo Frontier
Highest Elo rating from blind human preference voting
1501
Gemini 3 Pro
LMArena
2025-11-18
Arena Elo Frontier — History
2025-12-11
1,458
2025-07-11
1,473
2025-11-17
1,483
2025-11-18
1,501
SWE-bench Frontier
Best score on real-world GitHub issue resolution by AI
80.9%
Claude Opus 4.5
SWE-bench Verified
2025-11-24
SWE-bench Frontier — History
2025-09-29
77.2
2025-12-11
80
2026-02-05
80.8
2025-11-24
80.9
Hardware
Compute substrate scaling
Chip Transistor Count
Transistors on the most advanced shipping processor
336B
NVIDIA Rubin R100
NVIDIA
2026-01-01
Chip Transistor Count — History
2020-01
54.2
2022-01
114
2024-01
208
2026-01
336
Training Compute Frontier
Peak compute used to train a single frontier model
2e26 FLOP
2025 frontier
Epoch AI
2025-01-01
Training Compute Frontier — History
2022-01-01
24.699
2023-01-01
25.301
2024-01-01
25.699
2025-01-01
26.301
GPU TFLOPS Frontier
Peak FP16 performance of the latest data center GPU
3,375 TFLOPS
B300
NVIDIA
2025-01-01
GPU TFLOPS Frontier — History
2020-01-01
312
2022-01-01
990
2024-01-01
2,250
2025-01-01
3,375
Robotics
Physical AI deployment
Humanoid Robots Deployed
Humanoid robots operating in real-world environments
~10,000
Figure, Tesla, Agility
Industry estimates
2025-12-01
Humanoid Robots Deployed — History
2023-01
200
2024-01
1,500
2025-06
5,000
2025-12
10,000
Cost per Humanoid
Estimated manufacturing cost per humanoid robot unit
~$50K
Target: <$20K by 2028
Tesla, Figure estimates
2025-12-01
Cost per Humanoid — History
2023-01
250,000
2024-01
150,000
2025-01
80,000
2025-12
50,000
Industrial Robots Deployed
Total operational industrial robots worldwide
5.2M
2025 global fleet
IFR
2025-01-01
Industrial Robots Deployed — History
2019-01-01
2.72
2021-01-01
3.48
2023-01-01
4.28
2025-01-01
5.2
Macro Trends
Global-scale indicators
Kardashev Rating
Civilization's energy use on a logarithmic scale where 1.0 = all of Earth's energy
0.729
Type I = 1.0
Sagan interpolation
2026-01-01
Kardashev Rating — History
1975-01
0.67
2000-01
0.72
2025-01
0.728
2026-01
0.729
Global AI Investment
Total annual investment in AI companies and infrastructure
$300B
~3x year-over-year
Stanford AI Index, Crunchbase
2026-01-01
Global AI Investment — History
2022-01
52
2023-01
67
2024-01
110
2025-01
300
Renewable Energy %
Share of global electricity generation from renewable sources
35%
Surpassing coal in 2025
IEA
2026-01-01
Renewable Energy % — History
2020-01
27
2022-01
29
2024-01
32
2025-01
35
Longevity
Lifespan extension progress
Longevity Clinical Trials
Active clinical trials targeting aging and age-related disease
~350
Active aging/longevity trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
2025-12-01
Longevity Clinical Trials — History
2020-01
130
2022-01
200
2024-01
280
2025-12
350
Epigenetic Clock Accuracy
Mean error in predicting biological age from DNA methylation
±1.5 yrs
Biological age measurement
Horvath Lab
2025-06-01
Epigenetic Clock Accuracy — History
2018-01
2.7
2019-01
2.5
2022-01
2
2025-01
1.5
Gene Therapies Approved
FDA-approved gene and cell therapy treatments
34
FDA-approved
FDA
2025-12-01
Gene Therapies Approved — History
2021-01
14
2023-01
22
2024-01
28
2025-12
34
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Neural interface milestones
Implanted BCI Patients
People with surgically implanted brain-computer interfaces
~15
Neuralink, BrainGate, Synchron
Company announcements
2025-12-01
Implanted BCI Patients — History
2022-01
5
2024-01
8
2025-06
12
2025-12
15
BCI Electrode Count
Recording channels on the leading implanted neural interface
1,024
Neuralink N1
Neuralink
2025-12-01
BCI Electrode Count — History
2012-01
96
2019-01
256
2023-01
1,024
2025-01
1,024