What Is the Singularity?

"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."

— Vernor Vinge, 1993

Although several definitions exist, the Singularity is most accurately defined as the point in time ushered in by the development of recursively self-improving smarter-than-human intelligence. This could be achieved through augmentation of a human brain, mind uploading, or most likely, the development of seed artificial intelligence. In any case, this development will create a discontinuity in human history so abrupt and profound that our existence will be forever radically altered.

Beyond the Event Horizon

The term Singularity derives from the concept in physics where a singularity represents the center of a black hole. At this point in space, all our physical models break down as the density approaches infinity. Similarly, the technological Singularity represents a point at which our models of the future collapse and we become unable to extrapolate beyond its event horizon. Just as light cannot escape beyond the event horizon of a black hole, once we pass the event horizon of the Singularity, there will be no going back.

The Singularity has greater significance than any event prior to it because it represents transcending a limitation that has existed on our planet, and possibly the entire universe, since its origins.

The Limitations We Carry

Although humans have evolved far enough to develop self-reflective intelligence, we have been restricted by that same level of intelligence for the past 50,000 years of our existence. Despite its successes, human-level intelligence has many shortcomings. Human minds cannot access their underlying "source code" and thus cannot make modifications or improvements. We are severely limited in our ability to absorb information, retain information, perform rapid calculations, communicate information to other minds, and think on complex or abstract levels.

One reason for these limitations is the restrictive hardware of the human brain. While there exist hundreds of billions of neurons, each with thousands of connections, each neuron operates at a lowly 200 Hz. The serial processing speed of the human mind remains tens of millions of times slower than modern computers. By transferring a biological mind to a non-biological substrate while retaining massive parallelism, we could achieve enormous increases in thinking speed.

But simply thinking faster is not enough. We also need minds capable of thinking smarter.

Software Constraints

The second limitation of the human mind exists at the software level. The blind forces of evolution produced cognitive software focused on enabling the survival of genes within competitive environments. There was no forethought or planning; whatever produced immediate benefit was introduced to the gene pool. Furthermore, evolution could not scrap a design and start fresh; it could only work with what was already available.

The human mind is therefore a conglomeration of specialized modules added throughout evolutionary history. This specialized intelligence represents one point in a vast space of possible intelligences. While it has proven effective for outsmarting predators and competing for food and mates, it falls short on many other levels. The human brain is prone to cognitive biases and heuristics that produce fallacious ideas and irrational decisions.

Recursive Self-Improvement

If we were to redesign the human brain, we could remove its failings and weaknesses while adding new layers of cognition to create a type of general intelligence. The strongest advantage of this general intelligence would be its ability to examine its own internal workings, its source code, and make improvements as it sees fit.

This recursively self-improving mind could then create an even more intelligent mind, generating a near-infinite positive feedback loop. Within a very short period, this intelligence could reach levels beyond human comprehension, creating the "spike" of the Singularity.

"From the human point of view this change will be a throwing away of all the previous rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control. Developments that before were thought might only happen in 'a million years' (if ever) will likely happen in the next century."

— Vernor Vinge

Why This Matters

The development of smarter-than-human intelligence would provide greater benefit to humanity than all other developments combined. This is because a "hard" problem for humanity becomes trivial when intelligence of the appropriate magnitude is applied to it. Problems of limited resources, pollution, war, destruction, needless suffering, poverty, starvation, disease, aging, and death could be solved in a single insight.

Humans could become smarter, healthier, happier, and gain the potential for unlimited growth, exploration, understanding, and advancement. The Singularity represents humanity's greatest chance to achieve the best of all possible worlds.